Diversions lift U.S. air freight
An industry analyst said domestic air freight and express revenue-ton-miles increased a modest 1.2 percent in October, below the average annual increase of 4.6 percent, but better than the 3.8 drop in October 2003.
October's total was up 5.3 percent from September, and the highest since March of this year, Smith Barney analyst Scott Flower wrote in a report released Tuesday.
Flower said October's improvement was likely boosted by ocean traffic diverted from the congested ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (www.joc.com), and expects the volume of diverted freight to slow now that the ports have cleared the cargo backlog.
In 2005 "ocean capacity will increase, which should limit ocean to air diversions. This may aid ocean net revenue margins at the forwarders to a degree," Flower wrote.
International freight and express revenue-ton-miles increased 14.3 percent year-over-year in October, and up 8.5 percent from September. Growth was fairly broad based, with two of the three regions surveyed showing year-over-year growth greater than 10 percent, as the Atlantic and Pacific regions grew 16.5 percent and 14.3 percent in October, and Latin American revenue grew 5.4 percent, against weaker year-ago levels.
The report said that looking ahead, a weaker dollar could have a depressing affect on international inbound air shipments; "however, this would also increase the attractiveness of U.S. goods in foreign markets, which could help support international freight."
Posted 9:46 a.m. ET, Tue Dec 7, 2004
Updated 3:21 p.m. ET, Tue Dec 7, 2004
The JOURNAL of COMMERCE ONLINE
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